Amarnath flood No system to predict cloudburst says Indian Meterological Department-बादल फटने की कैसे करें भविष्यवाणी? मौसम विभाग के पास भी कोई सिस्टम नहीं

IMD says it has no system to predict cloudburst (representative image) - India TV
Image source: FILFOTO
IMD says it has no system to predict cloudburst (representative image)


  • Predicting such weather is full of challenges
  • “Such events occur due to the accumulation of too much moisture in the mountains”
  • Amarnath Cave is ecologically very fragile

Amarnath flood: When the Meteorological Department on Friday predicted light rain around Amarnath, meteorologists had no way of predicting a sudden cloudburst that caused heavy rainfall in the upper areas, causing floods and landslides and for pilgrims below. The camps were washed away. Let us state that 16 people have died due to floods and landslides, and while 40 are still missing. Officials are continuing with the rescue operation and the yatra has been put on hold for the time being.

No system to predict cloudburst

Sonam Lotus, a scientist at the Meteorological Bureau in Srinagar, said: “The upper part of the Amarnath cave is cloudy and can cause heavy rain. Our weather station may not catch it.” We have the opportunity to measure the rain there. There are no means as it is a very difficult terrain. “The meteorological department has predicted that there is a possibility of heavy rain or lightning in the western Himalayas in the next 5 days. Last year a similar incident took place in Jammu and Kashmir In the remote mountainous Kishtwar district of the village of Honjar, 7 people were killed and many are still missing. Every month in July, cloudbursts and lightning floods in the Himalayas and the western Ghats make headlines, but this prediction of this kind of weather event is fraught with challenges. Worldwide, there is no system for predicting cloudburst events.

Climate change is the cause of the increasing incidence of cloudbursts

Researcher RK Jenamani of the National Weather Forecasting Center said, “Modeling systems often do not capture how fast these systems are evolving and how intense they are.” These events are caused by the accumulation of a lot of moisture in the mountains. We know that such events are on the rise now. “Climate change may be one of the reasons for the increased incidence of cloudbursts.

“Too many people should not gather in such areas”

A former government meteorologist said “we know that climate change has increased the atmosphere’s ability to retain moisture. During the monsoon, this becomes even more pronounced, leading to cloudbursts or flood disasters.” Furthermore, we see rapid congestion in places that are already vulnerable to such events. People should not gather in large numbers in such areas where such incidents keep happening due to excessive rain, such incidents do not happen every year but they can happen once in a few years.

A report published last year by the Ministry of Geosciences said that between 1969 and 2015, the incidence of small cloudbursts increased along the west coast of India and at the foot of the western Himalayas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an official panel of meteorologists, said in a report last year, “More rainfall is expected in key mountainous regions, and all of them are prone to floods, landslides and lake eruptions.”

Amarnath Cave is ecologically very fragile

Anil V Kulkarni, visiting scientist at the Divecha Center for Climate Change, said: “We need to realize that the Himalayas are heating up faster and getting warmer than India and other parts. In such a situation, extreme events are more frequent in the mountains. Kulkarni added: “The downside of this development is that the Amarnath cave is at an altitude of more than 4,000 meters and is ecologically very fragile. If there are too many people, they can be vulnerable. “

IMD plans to install 90 weather radars

M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said last year that IMD plans to install at least 90 weather radars to effectively predict severe weather events. So far, IMD has about 33 radars, and we aim to have at least 90 radars to map the entire country.

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