तीन दशकों से दो पार्टियों के बीच रही लड़ाई, क्या इस बार बदलेगा गुजरात का समीकरण?

Will this assembly of 182 assembly seats put the BJP in power once again? This question is being discussed the most in political circles. Even in the triangular environment, BJP’s path has also become a struggle.

Political excitement has intensified after the Election Commission announced the dates for the Gujarat assembly elections on November 3. Election is the most important event in the life of any nation and province. It is a sacrifice. Democracy is the strongest pillar of the system. A day for every adult in the country to exercise the sacred right of suffrage provided by the Constitution. There is no longer any Rajpurohit or Rajguru on the throne of power, but people apply Tilak with their own hands. Whom the people of Gujarat will vote for in these elections is in the womb of the future. BJP may have been winning elections continuously since 1995, but will it repeat this history this time too? Congress has been a successful and capable contender here, it came close to power once again last time, will it be able to do so this time? Will Aam Aadmi Party be able to perform a miracle like Delhi?

Amidst these issues, the main contest is between BJP and Congress this time again, with the Aam Aadmi Party giving tough competition to both BJP and Congress with its presence, overcoming the absence of a third strong party. This time the road for both the parties seems to be a little tougher, as the electoral equations are changing here due to AAP’s successful knock, the election looks to be triangular. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal has been campaigning vigorously for several months now, which is showing results. Whether Savarni will win the trust of the people is difficult to say. This election will be a joy as well as a struggle, no doubt. The election results are still fresh in people’s minds. Whether the ballot boxes will reveal the secret is in the womb of time. But one message from this election will be that indiscipline and corruption can be curbed if only one strong person is appointed. People’s trust can be won. Good governance can be established.

Also Read: What are the big issues in Gujarat this time that will decide the future of any political party?

Will this assembly of 182 assembly seats put the BJP in power once again? This question is being discussed the most in political circles. Even in the triangular environment, BJP’s path has also become a struggle. Because this time the election will be triangular between new environment and new conditions. The last by-elections here are also showing signs of a three-way fight. But in this conflict there is BJP on one side, AAP and Congress on the other. The current situation shows that there is a direct fight between BJP and other parties here. Voters here are influenced by BJP especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That is why the focus will be on which party occupies the second and third place in the Gujarat elections? Although the Aam Aadmi Party’s strong performance in the local Swarajya elections has given it new energy, especially in Surat areas, it is difficult to say how much this enthusiasm will translate into victory.

In the last assembly elections, the BJP won 99 seats and formed the government with 41.4 percent votes, 7 seats more than a clear majority, an increase in vote percentage of 2.5 percent. Even then Modi’s magic showed its effect, this time Modi will show the magic. But due to effective leadership and mutual division, BJP’s position is getting complicated. The role of tribal voter is important in Gujarat, due to the neglect of the issues of the tribal community and the indifference of the tribal leaders, this community is also getting upset this time. This resentment can be overcome by selecting suitable and effective candidates at the time of allotment of seats. The tribal community wants a candidate who will protect their interests and make the lives of the tribals better. These days the name of tribal saint Gani Rajendra Vijayji is also in discussion in the list of candidates. Such candidates can influence the votes of the tribal community.

There are many issues in Gujarat elections. The main point is that an accident can occur on Morbi’s bridge. Obviously, the opposition will attack the BJP by making it an election issue. There is some dissatisfaction with the ruling party among the general electorate. Especially in terms of pension schemes, since there are a large number of government employees, who are comparatively more effective in elections. This is the reason why in every election an attempt is made to know the mood of the government employees here. BJP can cut its weak roots by thinking positively on these two issues – disgruntled employees and neglected tribal community. Now the only solution is distribution of election tickets. BJP has also tightened its belt against this. It has cut the ticket of almost one-third of the sitting MLAs and relied on new faces. In another effective effort, he reshuffled the entire cabinet here about a year ago. The new Chief Minister was also crowned. All this was done so that any discontent among the people against the state government could be suppressed. It is clear that BJP’s attempt here is not only to win the election, but also to enter the fray with a huge margin.

Also Read: These 25 Assembly Seats Have Been In The Headlines Every Time In Gujarat Elections, All Eyes Are On Them This Time Also

AAP’s presence in Gujarat elections is becoming a big challenge. There is a lot of difference between BJP and Congress. As a result AAP has given tickets to many rebel leaders. Surely these rebels will hurt their former party. Obviously, with this, the electoral equation seems to be taking a new shape here, due to which the contest could become a thorny one. You are making the match triangular. Everyone is watching how many votes this party gets between BJP and Congress. The Congress’ emphasis this time is on door-to-door campaigning instead of rallies and general meetings, which it claims will bear fruit. But the biggest thing in BJP’s favor is its strong electoral machinery, secondly the popular image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and thirdly the charismatic election management and influence of Home Minister Amit Shah. Congress completely lacks such conditions. Congress was a strong party here, but now it looks very weak. So, whatever strength you get, it will only come from the weakening of the Congress. Clearly, there is a bipartisan struggle here for the Congress. On the one hand she has to fight against the BJP and on the other she has to face the challenges she is facing. Despite this, his gait seems sluggish. It will benefit BJP. Even if BJP loses some votes, it will be split between AAP and Congress. BJP will have real advantage in the situation of three-cornered election war. This election will not only decide the fate of the parties, but will affect the policies of industry, trade, employment etc. and the entire way of life and brotherhood culture of the state. Although caste remains the basis of class in every election, this time class, caste, religion, employment, tribal community and trade have emerged widely. Modi has given a new identity to Gujarat and given a fast pace of development, its continuity is necessary. In such circumstances, if the voter turns blindly without any discernment, the result will justify the proverb ‘If the blind lead the blind, both will go to hell’.

– Lalit Garg

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