उपचुनाव परिणाम से तय होगी मुलायम सिंह की विरासत और आजम खान की ताकत

Assembly by-elections are being held in Rampur after 10-time MLA Azam Khan was stripped of his assembly membership. Azam Khan’s reputation is attached to this seat. This time SP has fielded a leader close to Azam Khan from here.

By-elections to one Lok Sabha and two assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh have added to the political heat in the state. Although the election results on these 3 seats will not affect any government, these by-elections are being held in the areas of veteran leaders whose political stature has been very high. One of these elections is to be held in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat of late Samajwadi leader and former Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, while the other is going to be held in Rampur after Azam Khan’s membership of the Legislative Assembly was revoked. Azam Khan’s membership was terminated after he was sentenced to 3 years in a criminal case. If we talk about the election of Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, here there is a contest between SP and BJP. Congress and BSP have not fielded their candidates from Mainpuri. Apart from this, the most important thing is that the uncle-nephew is challenging the BJP candidate in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha elections. The political distance between the two has reduced a lot. The SP has fielded Mulayam’s elder daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav from here, while the Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded Raghuraj Shakya, an old loyalist of Mulayam Singh. Yadav and Shakya voters have a good influence in Mainpuri. BJP is constantly trying to improve its political position here. After the death of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a by-election is being held in Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. Mulayam or his family members have consistently won elections from here.

At the same time, assembly by-elections are being held in Rampur after 10-time MLA Azam Khan was stripped of his assembly membership. Azam Khan’s reputation is attached to this seat. This time SP has fielded a leader close to Azam Khan from here. Akash Saxena is in the fray from BJP. It was Akash who raised the issue of corruption in Johor University. On the other hand, a by-election is being held in Khatauli after the court announced the sentence against BJP MLA Vikram Saini. Azam and Vikram Saini were sentenced to two years or more and lost their membership under the Representation of the People Act. There was also a ban on contesting elections. In such a situation BJP is trying to take back Khatauli. At the same time, efforts are also being made to break the stronghold of the SP in Mainpuri and Rampur. In such a situation the equation of these seats becomes very important.

Also Read: Understand the equation of Mainpuri parliamentary seat, a stronghold of the Mulayam family

In the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, whichever side Yadav goes for will win. SP President Mulayam Singh Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav is contesting from here. Also BJP has bet on Raghuraj Shakya. The announcement of candidates has heated up politics from Mainpuri to Lucknow. The BJP fired several arrows at once by giving ticket to Raghuraj Shakya, who was once angry with the Samajwadi Party and was considered close to Shivpal Yadav. It was Mulayam Singh Yadav who made Raghuraj Shakya MP from Etawah. In such a state they are said to be close to mulayam. But, when Shivpal parted ways with the SP in 2017, Raghuraj joined him. Then Shakya and Yadav did votebank politics. If there is a question of caste arithmetic in Mainpuri Lok Sabha Constituency then Karhal, Jaswantnagar, Kishni, Bhoggaon and Mainpuri Sadar Assembly Constituencies with more than 17 lakh voters come in this Lok Sabha constituency.

If we talk about only one caste out of 17 lakh voters of Lok Sabha, there are about 4.30 lakh Yadav voters. This is followed by the second number of 2.90 lakh Shakya voters. After this the votes of all Dalit castes are also around 1.80 lakhs. There are also over 2 lakh Kshatriya votes and over one lakh 20 thousand Brahmin votes. 60 thousand Muslims, 70 thousand Vaishyas, more than one lakh Lodhi voters also influence the elections. In such a situation, if the Yadav votes come together, the difficulties of other candidates may increase. This is the reason why Mainpuri MLA and minister Jayveer Singh asked to keep an eye on Shivpal Yadav’s strategy before announcing the BJP candidate. This time 13 candidates contested in Mainpuri. This time, with the cancellation of nominations of seven out of 13 candidates, the election results have been disrupted. Cancellation of Subha Sabha candidate’s nomination has affected Kashyap’s vote. Now this vote can play its decisive role in the elections.

The main contest in the by-election is between SP candidate Dimple Yadav and BJP candidate Raghuraj Singh Shakya. While Mainpuri is a stronghold of the SP, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which runs the government in the state and at the Centre, also wants to win this seat at any cost. In this situation the role of other candidates and scattered voters becomes more important. In this situation Mulayam Singh Yadav’s legacy has been handed over to Dimple Yadav. Dimple Yadav is seen moving forward in by-election politics. However, if BJP’s Raghuraj Shakya manages to win over his Shakya vote bank as well as the Dalit vote bank, it could spell trouble for Dimple Yadav. BJP may try to heat up its politics after Akhilesh and Shivpal come along. Voting for these seats will be held on December 5 and counting of votes will be held on December 8. Even though BJP is the largest political party in the world today, but the dust of Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency always haunts BJP. Since the formation of BJP till date, BJP has never been able to wave saffron in Mainpuri. The Modi wave was also of no use to the BJP here. This is the reason why this time BJP is desperate to feed Kamal and the competition is with Dimple Yadav, daughter-in-law of the Saifai family.

– Ajay Kumar

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